If you are looking for a promising investment theme in stock investment, you should know about "quantum computer". Quantum computers can express an overwhelming number of information patterns at once, and can greatly reduce the number of information processing steps compared to conventional computers, making it possible to dramatically improve calculation speed. If it is put to practical use, it is believed that technological progress will accelerate in various fields, such as the development of new drugs and the alleviation of traffic congestion. Let's explain the future potential, attractiveness of investment, and related stocks.
Quantum computers can solve problems that classical computers, such as conventional supercomputers, cannot answer without spending a huge amount of time. A high-speed computer of the generation. First, I will introduce the basic knowledge of quantum computers.
A quantum computer is a computer that uses the phenomena of quantum mechanics. In the first place, the quantum refers to substances below the atomic level, such as electrons, atomic nuclei, protons, and neutrons. Quantum computers make good use of these quantum properties, making it possible to perform enormous calculations instantaneously.
Specifically, what properties of quantum do quantum computers use? It is a property called "superposition" that takes two states at the same time and "quantum entanglement". First, let's explain "superimposition".
The information unit of a classical computer is a "bit", and a bit can be either "0" or "1". To emphasize the difference from quantum computers, it can be said that bits are characterized by the fact that they can take either value.
For example, in the case of 4 bits, there are 4 bits that can be either 0 or 1 (2 ways), so 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16 expression patterns (0 to 15 in decimal) exist, but only one of the 16 can be represented at a time. To calculate using all patterns that can be represented by 4 bits, 16 inputs and calculations are required.
On the other hand, the information unit "qubit" of a quantum computer is characterized by being "both '0' and '1'" at the same time, and this is called "superposition". It is possible to express a lot of information at the same time by using the state of superposition.
For example, with 4 qubits, decimal numbers 0-15 can be represented simultaneously. A classical computer required 16 inputs and calculations, but a quantum computer can do it in a single process. In other words, quantum computers can express an overwhelmingly large number of patterns of information at once, so they can greatly reduce the number of calculations and perform high-speed calculations.
▽Difference between "bits" in classical computers and "qubits" in quantum computers
Image Quote: Mitsubishi Research Institute "What is 'Amazing' about Quantum Computers? What is the Difference from Classical Computers?" This means that when multiple qubits are correlated, measuring one qubit simultaneously determines the state of the other qubit.For example, suppose you have a qubit A and a qubit B. Both are in a superimposed state of "both '0' and '1'", and neither 0 nor 1 is determined as if a coin were spinning. When A is measured and found to be 0, B is determined to be 1 at that moment. This phenomenon is said to occur no matter how far the distance is, and it is a mechanism of ultra-high-speed information transmission that cannot be explained by conventional theories.
These properties of superposition and entanglement enable quantum computers to process information much faster than classical computers.
The reason why quantum computers are attracting attention is because of their speed of information processing. Computers are still active in various industries today, constantly performing various information processing, that is, calculations.
If the speed of these calculations increases dramatically, the time required for information processing can be greatly reduced. For example, it will become possible to do things that would take a year on a classical computer in a day, and things that would take years to do in a month.
In other words, it can be said that the benefit that quantum computers give to mankind is "saving time", and many experts call the practical application of quantum computers "the greatest technological innovation of the 21st century."
Quantum computers are divided into several categories depending on the difference in calculation method, but I would like to keep in mind the "quantum gate method" and " Quantum annealing method".
The quantum gate method has the longest history among the methods of quantum computers, and is, so to speak, the “main stream”. The feature is that it has the same versatility as a classical computer and can perform ultra-high-speed calculations. Since it can be applied to various fields, it will have a great impact on society if it is put into practical use. It is being developed by Google and IBM.
However, the hurdles to practical use are high, and the number of qubits must be greatly increased. A general-purpose quantum computer requires around one million qubits, but as of 2019, Google's quantum computer has 54 qubits.
[Reference] Google AI Blog "Quantum Supremacy Using a Programmable Superconducting Processor"
On the other hand, the quantum annealing method specializes in combinatorial optimization problems and is ahead of its practical application. However, even though it is specialized, this optimization problem is widely demanded by the industrial world, so early practical application is required first.
A representative company developing quantum annealing methods is D-Wave Systems of Canada. The company announced a quantum computer with over 5,000 qubits in 2020. However, the problems that can be solved are still limited. In order for quantum computers with quantum annealing to be widely used in business, it is necessary to deal with large-scale and sophisticated optimization problems.
[Reference] D-Wave Systems "D-Wave Announces General Availability of First Quantum Computer Built for Business"
In Japan, NEC is collaborating with D-Wave Systems and is working on development aiming for practical application in 2023. In addition, the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) is focusing on developing technology that can handle large-scale combinatorial optimization problems with a small number of qubits.
[Reference] NEC "NEC and D-Wave Collaborate in the Quantum Computing Field-Joint Product Development, Marketing, and Sales Activities Started-"
[Reference] National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology "Realization of a superconducting quantum annealing machine using a unique architecture"
If quantum computers are put into practical use, it is expected to speed up research and development in various fields.
The representative field is drug discovery. By being able to instantly try various combinations of molecules and materials, it will be possible to develop groundbreaking new drugs in a short period of time. There are also high expectations for quantum computers in the development of cancer treatment drugs.
It is said to bring innovation to traffic congestion. It will also be possible to instantly analyze the flow of a huge number of vehicles traveling on the road and optimize signal control. In a future where quantum computers are practical, it should take less time to get to your destination by car than it does now.
In addition, the development of batteries for electric vehicles, the improvement of prediction accuracy in the financial sector, and the optimization of evacuation guidance in the event of a disaster are other themes that are expected to be applied in the practical application of quantum computers.
Quantum computers are a field where the market size is expected to expand significantly. What factors will be essential for this market expansion? Also, let's grasp not only the advantages but also the disadvantages of the evolution of quantum computers.
The Yano Research Institute, a private research firm, estimates the size of the domestic market for quantum computers in October 2021. Refer to the monthly report.
According to this report, the size of the market in Japan (based on the sales of service providers) is estimated to be 13.94 billion yen in 2021, and this scale will increase to 55 billion yen in 2025 and 2030. It is expected to expand to 294 billion yen by the end of the fiscal year.
▽ Domestic quantum computer market size transition and forecast
Image Quote: Yano Research Institute, "Conducting a Survey on the Quantum Computer Market (2021)" The following three points are the assumptions that the market will continue to expand in the future.・Evolution of hardware and maintenance of development environment・Creation of applications that bring out the capabilities of hardware・Discovery of use cases
Hardware refers to the machine itself and the parts that make up the machine. If the evolution of quantum computer hardware does not proceed smoothly, the expansion of the market scale will naturally slow down. Currently, the competition for hardware development among domestic and foreign businesses is intensifying, and it is invigorating as hardware vendors build developer communities and enhance the development environment.
On the other hand, even if the development of quantum computers progresses smoothly, if applications are not developed to maximize the computational power of quantum computers, it will be a "waste of treasure". Currently, applications are being created one after another as the products of various demonstration experiments in fields such as material calculation and simulation.
It is also important to discover use cases for quantum computers. Therefore, in the future, quantum computer literacy (knowledge and ability) education for private companies will also be necessary. Currently, more and more vendors are developing training for user companies, and the movement to create use cases in multiple fields by launching a council is accelerating.
[Reference] Examples of quantum computer-related councils ・Quantum Innovation Initiative Council (QII Council) ・Council for Creating New Industries with Quantum Technology (Q-STAR)
The advantages of quantum computers have already been explained. If quantum computers evolve and are put to practical use in the industrial world, research and development that involve massive calculations can be completed early, accelerating innovation.
On the other hand, the evolution of quantum computers has its disadvantages. For example, it is said that faster calculation speeds will enable instantaneous deciphering of cryptographic techniques used for information security. Therefore, the development of new security countermeasures is required prior to the practical use of quantum computers.
Cryptography that is difficult to decipher even with a quantum computer is called "post-quantum cryptography". Currently, the most promising post-quantum cryptography technology is “lattice cryptography,” which has high security and a wide range of applications. In addition, various new encryption technologies are being developed.
▽Image of Lattice Cryptography
Image Source: National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, "Toward Practical Use of Lattice Cryptography - World Records of Decryption Experiments and Their Significance"As mentioned above, the practical application of quantum computers will bring great benefits to society. If that is the case, among the companies developing businesses related to quantum computers, there should be companies that will grow rapidly in the future. Quantum computers will explain the attractiveness of investment.
There are many businesses related to quantum computers. This is because, in addition to medicine and transportation, various fields such as the environment, finance and agriculture will benefit. Companies in various fields are expected to try to utilize quantum computers in the future, and it is thought that the number of related stocks that are candidates for investment will increase.
Considering that quantum computers are still in their infancy and the market is expected to expand in earnest, It can be said that this is a long-term investment theme. And once quantum computers are put into practical use, people will continue to benefit from high-speed computing, and quantum computers should become a long-term driving force for social change.
In particular, quantum computers are considered to be indispensable in accelerating businesses related to IoT, medical care, and information security. This is because there are many scenes that require huge calculations in these fields.
Let's introduce five stocks related to quantum computers. number as of date).
Fixstars is a company that provides support for quantum computer utilization and system development, and is also known for its collaboration with Fujitsu and Hitachi.
In February 2021, we will open the cloud platform “Fixstars Amplify” that can perform quantum annealing. By lowering the technical hurdles and providing services with reduced work costs, we are contributing to the easing of barriers to entry for research and development of applications that solve combinatorial optimization problems.
| Market capitalization | 29,599 million yen |
| Sales | 5,501 million Yen |
| Operating income | 971 million yen |
| Ordinary income | < td>960 million yen|
| Net income | 543 million yen |
NF Holdings is a company that is expected to contribute to the development of quantum computers with its multi-channel low-noise amplification system and precision low-noise DC voltage source.
In order to put a general-purpose quantum computer into practical use, it is essential to increase the number of qubits, but at the same time, it is necessary to suppress the variation in measurement. At that time, the multi-channel low-noise amplification system developed by the company plays an active role and contributes to the suppression of variations.
| Market cap | 9.87 billion yen |
| Sales | 10.651 billion Yen |
| Operating income | 704 million yen |
| Ordinary income | < td>738 million yen|
| Net income | 444 million yen |
Terasukai established Quemix as a subsidiary in 2019 and is engaged in quantum computer-related business. Specifically, we are engaged in research and development of software related to quantum technology. It is also known for its collaboration with IBM. In December 2020, Quemix raised 300 million yen from a government fund.
| Market capitalization | 22.356 billion yen |
| Sales | 11.144 billion Yen |
| Operating income | 779 million yen |
| Ordinary income | < td>780 million yen|
| Net income | 2,459 million yen |
HPC Systems is involved in scientific computing systems, and has begun full-scale efforts in the area of quantum chemical computing. It is attracting a lot of attention from the industry, which is conducting research and development for drug discovery and researching new materials and materials.
In July 2020, we signed a business alliance agreement with QunaSys, which develops applications for quantum computers, and announced that we would collaborate on technological development that applies quantum computers.
| Market capitalization | 12.145 billion yen |
| Sales | 5.828 billion Yen |
| Operating income | 676 million yen |
| Ordinary income | < td>665 million yen|
| Net income | 447 million yen |
Sigma Koki is attracting attention for developing an optical component called a "beam splitter" that is necessary for the development of quantum computers. A beam splitter can split a beam into two or overlap two beams, and plays an important role in quantum computing.
Sigma Koki is a company founded in 1977 and is known for handling approximately 3,400 types of basic optical equipment products and approximately 10,000 types of optical elements and thin film products.
| Market cap | 13.58 billion yen |
| Sales | 8.765 billion Yen |
| Operating income | 983 million yen |
| Ordinary income | < td>1,152 million yen|
| Net income | 822 million yen |
Finally, I would like to touch on when quantum computers will be put into practical use.
In terms of "quantum gate method" and "quantum annealing method", the quantum annealing method is already at the stage of practical application, but the practical application of the quantum gate method, which can be said to be the mainstream of quantum computers, is still in the future.
Practical use of the quantum gate method requires a large increase in the number of qubits, as mentioned above. It's becoming
Qubits are error-prone and cannot be calculated correctly unless errors are detected and corrected each time. Therefore, by configuring one ``logical qubit'' using multiple ``physical qubits'', even if an error occurs in an individual physical qubit, the logical qubit can be restored to the state before the error. What it does is quantum error correction.
On top of that, in the practical use of quantum computers based on the quantum gate method, the realization time will vary greatly depending on how much the number of qubits is increased. It plans to develop a practical quantum computer with one million qubits by 2020.
[Reference] Google "Unveiling our new Quantum AI campus"
On the other hand, if it is a quantum computer with a small number of qubits called NISQ, it seems likely that it will be widely used in the industrial world earlier than Google's 2029. In 2021, Goldman Sachs of the United States announced a research result stating that the practical application of quantum computers in the financial sector will start in five years at the earliest.
[Reference] Goldman Sachs "Investing at Quantum Speed"
As you can see, quantum computers are gaining momentum among private companies, but other countries are also actively working to put them into practical use. The Japanese government has announced a roadmap to realize a quantum computer that can be used for various calculations after 2039.
[Reference] Cabinet Office “Quantum Technology Innovation Strategy Final Report (Summary)” (PDF)
A quantum computer is a computer that can instantly perform massive calculations using the phenomenon of quantum mechanics. . It can solve problems in a short amount of time that would otherwise have been unsolvable on a classical computer without spending an enormous amount of time.
If quantum computers are put into practical use, it is expected to be applied to all fields, such as the development of new medicines, the elimination of traffic congestion, and the improvement of prediction accuracy in the financial field. The domestic market is expected to expand to 294 billion yen in FY2030. Quantum computers can be said to be an attractive field for investment because the number of related stocks that are candidates for investment is likely to increase in the future, and it will be a driving force for social change over the long term.
Google aims to have a practical quantum computer by 2029. In the 2020s, the practical application of quantum computers will become more and more realistic, and more investment money is expected to flow into this field. We will continue to pay attention to this field in stock investment in the future.
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